Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Some world thoughts

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Man. It seems like I have less and less time nowadays. Today I will talk about divestment.

I have heard a lot of very smart people express views that divestment is a great cause. I have heard a lot of very smart people claim that divestment isn't going to work or even that it's actually bad. So what's up?

The theory behind divestment is to put pressure on companies in Sudan by driving their stock prices down. In particular, activist groups target specific companies that end up having their profits flow into the government (mostly Chinese oil companies). The idea is that the companies will in turn pressure Khartoum (the government) by considering leaving the country unless action is taken to get investors to put money back into the company (by ending the genocide).

Lets run down some reasons why people have said divestment might be a bad idea:
-Opportunity cost of helping is high
-It's too indirect and won't be effective
-Taking money away from the economy harms the people
-If money becomes an issue, Khartoum might not continue giving southern Sudan oil money

Opportunity cost. This refers to the idea that one might be able to do more good by hurting people to gain money if you can help more people in the end. The idea is completely sound, but I doubt many people would actually do this in such a way that it's actually more helpful (assuming that divestment is helpful).

Indirectness. OK. So this is the one I consider strongest by far. It just won't work. People can take their money out of companies operating in Darfur, but the market is self-correcting. If a company becomes undervalued, someone will buy up its stock. It's the smart thing to do. The game plan of divestment involves having companies' stock be grossly undervalued. It won't happen. There will be people who'd rather make money. I guarantee that.

Taking money away from the economy. Yeah this will harm people. That being said, the companies targeted are not companies that are being the livelihoods of the common folk. They are having their profits go to Khartoum. On the other hand, in a longer view this could cause cause more abuse to make up for the money lost.

This was a new one to me. Evidently Khartoum's peace deal with the south involves the south operating autonomously and receiving a hefty portion of the oil money. Cutting the total oil money might cause Khartoum to keep all the revenue instead of sharing it as per the agreement. This of course, would not be fun.

Anyhow, just some thoughts. Please discuss.

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